Thoughts on Xi and Trump

This week Xi was officially renamed President of the People's Republic, hardly surprising. I'm not sure people really care. I know some netizens do, but the average man on the street probably doesn't. I don't really get a chance to hear the views of common people all that often. A few years ago, on slow train to Chengdu, I had a conversation with two men, roughly my own age. They admired Putin greatly. They liked strong leaders. And they found Obama somewhat lacking.

We were told, after Obama's election, that his apotheosis would restore faith in the American system. Hardly. The image might be inspiring to some, but America's pathetic attempt at virtue signaling is drowned out by the images pumped out by Hollywood and the media. Indeed, the Atlantic has an interesting piece, explaining why a lot of Trump's Chinese supporters like him. Quite a few of them studied in the U.S. where they found themselves caught in the middle of our culture war, and they didn't like it one bit.

I sometimes wonder why Xi is doing it? Does he hope to turn the Chinese State into his private property -- in the manner of an African dictator? According to selectorate theory, motivation is assumed. Every leader, whether they lead a democracy or a tyranny, wants to remain in power. They do so by bribing the people that matter.

In a country with a large selectorate, leaders are forced to bribe the selectorate with public goods: infrastructure, schools, health care. In a country with a small selectorate, it's cheaper to bribe the selectorate with private goods: women, private jets, Swiss bank accounts.

So how is Xi staying in power? Is he bribing people with private goods or public goods? And what about Trump?

With Trump, the bribes are clearly public so far: tax cuts, infrastructure spending, increased defense spending. For example, I don't much care about infrastructure spending or tax cuts. Living overseas, I don't use the infrastructure and I don't pay taxes unless my income exceeds a certain level. But being the son of an arms manufacturer, I'm all for increased defense spending. I think it happens to be sound policy, but I have to admit, I'm not a disinterested observer.

One thing Xi has done is increased pensions. This seems to suggest that Xi is relying on bribing people with public goods, but is he. Pensions are interesting. Corporate employees pay part of their income into pension funds, 8%. Government employees don't pay anything into the pension funds. In other words, the pension scheme can be seen as redistributing money from private sector employees to public sector employees.

Ask yourself this, who is more likely to be part of the Chinese selectorate? A mid-level civil servant or a mid-level wage worker in the private sector? I'd know who I'd bother bribing.

Which brings me back to Trump. Liberals like to portray Trump's attack on officials as an attack on the rule of law. But in fact what his attacks are indicative of is this: in America the electorate is still the selectorate; his power isn't dependent on some cabal of civil servants.