Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Gary Cohen Out, Tariffs In

Gary Cohen, one of Trump's top economic advisors, has resigned over the the steel and aluminum tariffs being rolled out this week. He's not the only one upset. Speaker Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Ryan thinks the proposal is too broad. McConnell thinks tariffs might lead to a trade war. Mark Meadow, head of the Freedom Congress, worries that the Chinese might impose retaliatory tariffs targeting agriculture.

As many people have said, this is probably Trump opening negotiations. Will he impose a 25% tariff on all steel? Probably not. I expect we will get more targeted tariffs or other measures designed to prevent the transshipment of Chinese steel.

Over at the Financial Post, the second most read article is a op-ed supporting Trump's tariff plan. In it, the author notes that the EU has increased import duties on steel from Brazil, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine. He also notes that we don't know how much support the EU provides to its steel industry.

In any case, we'll soon find out.

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