Romain Franck, a French official working as a driver at the French Consulate in Jerusalem, has been accused of trafficking arms into the Gaza Strip.
Mr. Franck, 23 years old, was on a year long contract, designed to give young people an opportunity to work overseas.
According to Shin Beth, the Israel Military Intelligence Service, Mr. Franck was motivated by money, not political belief.
More at Paris Match and RFI.
Showing posts with label Foreign Affairs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Foreign Affairs. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Friday, March 16, 2018
Defense on the Cheap: Off-Shore Balancing
According to many, the United States is an off-shore balancer. It plays regional powers off one another, preventing any one power becoming a regional hegemon. America dislikes regional hegemons, believing them to be the only powers capable of successfully challenging American sea power.
American proponents of Off-shore balancing generally believe that only hegemons arising in Northeast Asia, the Persian Gulf, or Western Europe pose a threat to American power. This is why we spend so much of our time worrying about China's influence in Northeast Asia, Russia's influence in Western Europe, and the growing influence of Iran in the Persian Gulf.
The United States is planning to spend $686 billion on the DoD in FY 2019. Furthermore, the Department of Energy is performing life extension work on 5 types of nuclear warheads, and developing Columbia-class nuclear reactors for the Navy.
As mentioned a few days ago, the Air Force is short 2,000 pilots, most of those unfilled billets being for fighter pilots.
China is increasing it's military budget, shrinking our relative advantage. Iran is applying increase pressure, and the DPRK has threatened to test its nuclear warheads in the atmosphere.
In other words, it hardly seems like the time to cut defense spending. What we need to do, however, is keep defense spending from increasing. This means focusing on essentials: Northeast Asia and the Persian Gulf. Europe needs to pull more of its own weight. Yes, Russia is quite frightening--which is all the more reason why Europe ought to be spending more on it's own defense.
We need to make the Pivot to Asia more than just a rhetorical shield for American absenteeism. The best way for America to save money is by embracing a strategy and stop winging it.
Thursday, March 15, 2018
Corruption in the Middle East at all time high
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According to a statement by General Joseph L. Votel, Commander of U.S. Central Command, 90% of countries in the Middle East receive a failing grade from Transparency International Corruption Index and corruption is at an all time high.
Global Security lists 22 countries as falling within Central Command's area of responsibility. Here they are in ranked order. From most corrupt to least:
Syria (178)
Afghanistan (177)
Yemen (175)
Iraq (169)
Turkmenistan (167)
Tajikistan (161)
Uzbekistan (157)
Lebanon (143)
Kyrgyzstan (135)
Iran (130)
Kazakhstan (122)
Djibouti (122)
Pakistan (117)
Egypt (117)
Bahrain (103)
Kuwait (85)
Oman (68)
Jordan (59)
Saudi Arabia (57)
Seychelles (36)
Qatar (29)
United Arab Emirates (21)
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
Gary Cohen Out, Tariffs In
Gary Cohen, one of Trump's top economic advisors, has resigned over the the steel and aluminum tariffs being rolled out this week. He's not the only one upset. Speaker Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Ryan thinks the proposal is too broad. McConnell thinks tariffs might lead to a trade war. Mark Meadow, head of the Freedom Congress, worries that the Chinese might impose retaliatory tariffs targeting agriculture.
As many people have said, this is probably Trump opening negotiations. Will he impose a 25% tariff on all steel? Probably not. I expect we will get more targeted tariffs or other measures designed to prevent the transshipment of Chinese steel.
Over at the Financial Post, the second most read article is a op-ed supporting Trump's tariff plan. In it, the author notes that the EU has increased import duties on steel from Brazil, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine. He also notes that we don't know how much support the EU provides to its steel industry.
In any case, we'll soon find out.
As many people have said, this is probably Trump opening negotiations. Will he impose a 25% tariff on all steel? Probably not. I expect we will get more targeted tariffs or other measures designed to prevent the transshipment of Chinese steel.
Over at the Financial Post, the second most read article is a op-ed supporting Trump's tariff plan. In it, the author notes that the EU has increased import duties on steel from Brazil, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine. He also notes that we don't know how much support the EU provides to its steel industry.
In any case, we'll soon find out.
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Budget Analysis: Foreign Affairs Spending
In an old lecture given by Rory Stewart, from when he was chair of the Commons Defense Committee, he says that despite all Syria's growing importance at the time, and all the talk the Foreign Office was putting out, the British Diplomatic Service only had 2 civil servants over D7 rank, that's equivalent to an army captain, working on the problem.
Simply amazing, I thought to myself. And it made me wonder, how much are our NATO Allied spending on their foreign ministries? Every year, lots of outlets publish rankings of defense budgets, but no one publishes a ranking of foreign ministry spending. This is my attempt at compiling a ranking for 2017.
Why is it important? Lots of our allies like to talk big, but we should judge our allies according to their actions, not mere talk. An interesting thing to note is that most countries spend more on overseas development aid than on their foreign ministry. Below, I have tried as best I can to exclude that aid spending.
P5 Foreign Affairs Spending for 2017
Country..................................Budget.................................In 2017 Dollars
US.................................22,669,987,000 USD.....................22,669,987,000
Russia.....................................???..............................................Will Add
France...........................3,028,400,000 EUR........................3,724,053,764
China............................8,500,000,000 USD.........................9,500,000,000
UK................................2,000,000,000 GBP.........................2,784,280,000
Select European/NATO Foreign Affairs Spending
Country..................................Budget.............................Year
Germany.............................5.232 Billion EUR.........,,,...2017
Canada................................63,614,791 CAN.................2017
Holland...............................8 Billion EUR......................2018
Finland................................1.92 Billion EUR................2018
Take this data with a bit of salt. For instance, I don't think Holland is outspending Germany. And despite the Canadian Prime Minister's appalling performance in India, I'm being overly conservative with their figure. Canada just happens to provide a much more detailed breakdown of departmental expenditure.
Foreign Affairs Spending of American Allies in Asia
Country.................................Budget.......................Year
Japan.........................................???...........................Will Add
Korea...................2,068,320,000 Billion USD..........2017
Of course, what exactly is this measuring? What I want to measure is the capacity of a country to understand other countries. I'm interested in this because of Amy Chua's book Political Tribe, which I reviewed in a earlier post. In this book she makes a passing claim that the British understood tribes better, using that understanding to divide and conquer the subject peoples of its Empire.
I think this is true. The French did it, too. And the French have retained some of that knowledge, which they have employed to good use in Mali. That said, I think it is a very expensive capacity to develop. Given that we're spending far more than any other country, I doubt they're able to do a better job than us, except in countries they specialize in. For instance, the French with certain parts of Africa. The Nordic countries with Russia.
In conclusion, we spend a lot of money on our foreign policy apparatus, not just our military.
Simply amazing, I thought to myself. And it made me wonder, how much are our NATO Allied spending on their foreign ministries? Every year, lots of outlets publish rankings of defense budgets, but no one publishes a ranking of foreign ministry spending. This is my attempt at compiling a ranking for 2017.
Why is it important? Lots of our allies like to talk big, but we should judge our allies according to their actions, not mere talk. An interesting thing to note is that most countries spend more on overseas development aid than on their foreign ministry. Below, I have tried as best I can to exclude that aid spending.
P5 Foreign Affairs Spending for 2017
Country..................................Budget.................................In 2017 Dollars
US.................................22,669,987,000 USD.....................22,669,987,000
Russia.....................................???..............................................Will Add
France...........................3,028,400,000 EUR........................3,724,053,764
China............................8,500,000,000 USD.........................9,500,000,000
UK................................2,000,000,000 GBP.........................2,784,280,000
Select European/NATO Foreign Affairs Spending
Country..................................Budget.............................Year
Germany.............................5.232 Billion EUR.........,,,...2017
Canada................................63,614,791 CAN.................2017
Holland...............................8 Billion EUR......................2018
Finland................................1.92 Billion EUR................2018
Take this data with a bit of salt. For instance, I don't think Holland is outspending Germany. And despite the Canadian Prime Minister's appalling performance in India, I'm being overly conservative with their figure. Canada just happens to provide a much more detailed breakdown of departmental expenditure.
Foreign Affairs Spending of American Allies in Asia
Country.................................Budget.......................Year
Japan.........................................???...........................Will Add
Korea...................2,068,320,000 Billion USD..........2017
Of course, what exactly is this measuring? What I want to measure is the capacity of a country to understand other countries. I'm interested in this because of Amy Chua's book Political Tribe, which I reviewed in a earlier post. In this book she makes a passing claim that the British understood tribes better, using that understanding to divide and conquer the subject peoples of its Empire.
I think this is true. The French did it, too. And the French have retained some of that knowledge, which they have employed to good use in Mali. That said, I think it is a very expensive capacity to develop. Given that we're spending far more than any other country, I doubt they're able to do a better job than us, except in countries they specialize in. For instance, the French with certain parts of Africa. The Nordic countries with Russia.
In conclusion, we spend a lot of money on our foreign policy apparatus, not just our military.
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