Democratic Infighting vs. The Trojan Lamb

If the Democrats pick up 24 seat, Republicans lose the house. In a midterm election, the president's party -- that's us -- usually loses seats. There's different theories explaining why this happens but we'll just say it has to do with turnout. More people vote in presidential elections. Also, people tend to be a little bit more motivated by negative emotions. So people with a grievance are more likely to show.

In the special election in Pennsylvania. the Democrats got their act together and ran a socially conservative candidate, thereby successfully cherry-picking the district, which was considered safe. So safe the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decided to redistrict the state, practically on its own initiative, apparently applying a criterion --partisan balance-- which has never been applied before.

The Democrats barely won, but they did. So the question on everyone's mind is, can the Democrats do it again? Neo-neocon thinks they can. She believes a bunch of Democrats will run as social conservatives -- or at least moderates -- and then switch tunes upon achieving office. Yes, that could happen, and might happen in some district, but I don't think it can be a widespread phenomena. 

Progressives are already angry at few social conservatives that do remain in the Democratic Party. So angry that they're challenging them, and outside organizations are funding the challengers. I think we're going to see more of this. The Democratic primaries will force candidates to lean left. In the general election, when they lean back towards the center, they'll catch flak from both sides.

Being a Trojan Lamb is hard, especially when some of the Greeks are doing their utmost to burn you to the ground.  

Pennsylvania Special Election: Money and Ideology

The Democrats have won by a few hundred votes. We won't know the final count for I guess a week. FiveThirtyEight says we should be worried. Fine. Let's worry.

But let's look at some figures. Conor Lamb spent $3,031,838 to Saccone's $613,357. The average victor of a midterm election spends $1.6 million. In 2016 Tim Murphy spent $1.1 million. So Conor Lamb won by spending double the money that normally gets spent.

Can the Democrats replicate that sort of spending on a national level?

At the moment, it appears that Democrats have a slight lead in the money game. Republican candidates have raised $200 million. Democrats have raised $224.5 million. In the last midterm, Republican candidates raised around $86 million more than Democrats.

Finally, why should I worry? Conor Lamb is a DINO. If that's what Democrats have to do to win, becoming more conservative, fine by me.

Identity Politics: Nextgen America

Two organizations, Nextgen America and the Latino Victory Fund, are attempting to get more Latinos to run for office in Las Vegas. This is part of a national campaign, seeking to increase Latino political engagement. You can read about their recent workshop in the Las Vegas Review Journal. 

Nextgen America started out life attempting to politically combat climate change. They're doing a lot of hiring. The Latino Victory Fund is pretty much as advertised. They have a beef with how many Latinos hold elected office, claiming in their Problem Statement that:

This disparity in Latino political participation is one reason for the dearth of Latino elected officials. While the Latino population grows, the number of Latinos elected to public office remains dangerously low. In the current Congress, only 28 members of the House are Latino when more than twice that number would be reflective of their share of the national population. The statistics are worse in many legislative bodies across the nation. The lack of Latinos running for office further discourages political participation in the Latino community: when you don’t see people on the ballot that reflect your community, you are less likely to vote.

This is a classic example of how Democrats think. Many Conservatives make the mistake of assuming Democrats think in ideological terms. For the most part they don't.

The Republican Party is a coalition of sympathetic ideologies. The Democrats are a a coalition of social groups. The ties that bind Republicans are much stronger than the ties that bind Democrats. This isn't anything new.

What's interesting, is the idea implicit in the excerpt above: the only legitimate representatives of Latino interests are Latinos. But how strong is Latino identity? According to Pew, 27% of Latino newlyweds intermarry. Out of all newlyweds that intermarry, 47% involve one Hispanic spouse and one white spouse.

Will the children of such couples feel that the only legitimate representative of their interests in a Latino. What about the grand children of such couples? I somehow doubt it. As people becoming of increasingly mixed ancestry, they will take an ideological turn. And the Republican Party has that market cornered, unless you're in the market for regurgitated Marxism. 

Law of Unintended Consequences: Will Democrats Steal California from themselves?

In California, the two candidates with the greatest vote totals in the primaries move on to the general election, regardless of party. In the past this has resulted in keeping Republicans out of the general election. But things could change. 

According to Nate Silver's crew, so many Democrats are running in the primary that they could split their vote. They could split their vote so badly that two Republicans end up with the greatest vote totals and moving on to the general.

One can hope. And I'm sure there are ways we can give the Democrats a helping hand. To any Russian troll reading, please provide all available assistance. California, after all, is a common enemy.  

Something similar will happen to the Democrats in 2020. Trump is more than just the Teflon candidate. He's got active armor. People constantly under-estimate him and pay the price. The Democratic primaries are going to be packed. Every Democrat thinks they can defeat Trump. And they will fight each other to the death for the honor, fatally dividing their party in the process.

One can hope.     

 

Gov. Scott and Legislature

Interesting things happening in Florida. As predicted Gov. Scott and the Republicans in the legislature don't see eye-to-eye on gun safety. Both sides agree on a 21 minimum age requirement for all gun purchases. They also have agreed on increase spending for school safety, and they will walk back tax cuts to do it. 

Some version of the Republican plan is bound to pass. Republicans dominate the legislature. An assault weapons ban, however, may become a major campaign issue in the upcoming Senate race. Sen. Nelson currently leads in the polling. 

Gov. Scott is continuing to call out the FBI and federal authorities. According to Rasmussen, 32% of likely voters want he FBI director fired. 

It will be interesting to see how this issue develops on the campaign trail. 

Tim Pawlenty Eying Run

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is considering a run for governor, according to the Star-Tribune. He held a no frills meeting with potential campaign donors.

The case is an interesting one. Pawlenty is a Soft Never Trumper. Minnesota is a Blue State. And Pawlenty is the last Republican to win a state-wide election there. According to other reports, Republicans have lost somewhere between 33 to 50 seats in various elections to Democrats.

It will be interesting to see what sort of arrangement is reached between the Trump camp and his former critiques in the coming months.